Rates That Save

Mortgage Rates 7-7-2011

2011-07-07T09:37:00.000-06:00

Just admit it...sometimes you dont like good economic news. Especially when it causes a 30 bps gap down opening and spooks the bond market.

Well, you got a fair amount of it this morning, Jobs, Retail Sales, Euro, Etc. Enough good news to jump over the 200 day MA support we were counting on and cause us to go down and test our low of last week, which was also the low of last month, which is also scarry.

Need to hold 99.84, or we quickly may test 99.70...we must hold there or face the possibilility of a much bigger and longer sell off. Hopefully we can hold out until we get a peak at tomorrows unemployment numbers. Good or Bad, they will move the market, up or down....a lot, probably.

Have a great day!

Mortgage Rates 7-5-2011

2011-07-05T09:36:00.000-06:00

Factory orders came in pretty good if you are looking at the headline number. In fact, the headline number looks like we turned around from -.08 to +.09. The market is not reacting much for two reasons. First, this number was anticipated and second this number includes transportation. When you take out aircraft sales, Factory Orders were up only .02%, which was unchanged from last month.

Technically, we need to get abovt 100.40 to put an end to this threat of a much bigger move downward. We need to also stay above 99.70. Depending on unemployment...things could slide sideways for a few days in that range.

Have a great week!

Mortgage Rates 6-20-2011

2011-06-20T09:51:00.000-06:00

No Scheduled news this morning and all eyes are on......wait for it....Yep, Greece again. This time we think they will reach a new agreement and bonds are selling. I dont think we have heard the last of this yet, the Greeks are not too keen on taking the painful steps necessary to right their situation. Sound familiar?

This could prove to be a very important US history lesson and it is one we need to learn fast!

Let's hope bonds hold 100.60 today. It does not look that great so far. If we sell through there, look for another test of 100.20. This is a big news week and I doubt we get directional clarity until after GDP.

Have a great week!

Mortgage Rates 6-17-2011

2011-06-17T09:02:00.000-06:00

Mixed bag of news today and thus far bonds are reacting more to the bad news BUT stocks are reacting to the good news. Interesting to see no divergence between the two markets right now!

In the end, the two will move inverse to one another and my money is on the DOW turning south and bond prices continuing north. That is just a guess (obviously) but my guess is based on the magnitude of the overall news this week, in combination with the charts in both markets.

A move above 100.90 will spark a rally!

Have a great and safe weekend!

Mortgage Rates 6-16-2011

2011-06-16T08:56:00.000-06:00

We got some good news jobless claims and housing starts, but Greece is still the 800 pound elephant in the room that must be considered. After I recorded we also got the Philly Fed number and it is not pretty.

You've known my opinion on the economy throughout the year and nothing has happened to make me feel any better. In Fact, each week, we seem to gather more data points that support the double dip and historically low interest rates.

Hopefully we have finished our correction and can now resume our journey to 104!

Have a great day!

Mortgage Rates 5-31-2011

2011-05-31T09:35:00.000-06:00

Mostly all bad news so far this week on the home front. And by that I mean, literally on the home front, with Case Schiller down 3.3% and many markets hitting their post 2006 lows. We also have Chicago PMI and consumer confidence both taking hits and yet somehow the dow is focused on what?? Yep, Greece again. Do we really think this proposed bailout is the end of ALL of the EURO problems? If you believe that, then I am sure you also believe that QE2 was the end of our problems.

Should test 100.80 and then move toward 102 this week. This of course assumes we keep getting news like today's.

Have a great week!

Mortgage Rates 5/25/2011

2011-05-25T09:19:00.000-06:00

Durable orders were weaker than expected, thus causing a nice bond rally and putting more pressure on the DOW. Yesterdays trade was lifted by a fairly strong bond auction, making the point that people are still happily buying US bonds. Hopefully the 5 year auction goes well today. This could set us up for a big move, if tomorrows GDP is weak.

Be careful though..each time we test and fail at 100.50, the chance for a bigger move down gets stronger. We are going to need to get through the resistance soon or we risk testing support at the bottom.

I'm still looking up though!

Have a great day!

Mortgage Rates 5/3/2011

2011-05-03T09:45:00.000-06:00

Well...as the Bin Laden death celebrations (does that seem strange to anyone else?) fade and traders realize that is not the best reason for a stock market rally, we may see interest move back toward less risky trades.

Yesterdays VIX certainly was signaling a move toward volitility. I expect faily sideways and choppy trade until we start seeing some employment reports. Those begin tomorrow.

We are still positioned for a pretty big move up, but need to stay above 102.80 and close above 103 in the next 3 trading sessions. If that does not happen...we could get the oposite. How is that for hedging my position? For what it is worth, I am bullish on bonds but a great employment report can change all that. My bullishness is more technical at the moment.

Have a great day!

2011-04-28T09:33:00.000-06:00

Well...Bernanke did well yesterday. This in conjunction with GDP cratering and Jobless claims spiking have laid the ground work for a huge gap up in bonds. We are about to test the highs of early march.

The bond market loves when the Fed promises to fight inflation...EVEN if it means tightening policy. Long term bond buyers care less about higher rates in the future than they do about inflation. Inflation erodes their return.

In the end it will always be about Jobs and Inflation. Jobs cannot grow without a strong GDP and in a normal none steroid induced economy, this is the backdrop for longer term lower rates. Just be careful if we bounce off 102.80!

Have a great day!

Mortgage Rates 4/21/2011

2011-04-21T09:06:00.000-06:00

Lots of fundamental news could help bonds today. If we break above the shoulder of our head and shoulders pattern, we could see a meaningful movement up. If we try to break above and fail....look for a large decline.

FHFA housing index, jobless claims, Philly Fed and leading indicators are all dissapointing.. On the bright side we keep seeing some great earnings reports. Lastly, I guess nobody talks about nuclear crisis, MENA meltdown or global bust anymore...so I won't either.

Have a great day!

Mortgage Rates 4-19-2011

2011-04-19T09:18:00.000-06:00

Bonds are continuing their surprising ascent, in spite of plenty of fundamental reasons in oposition with this move. For me it was great AND surprising to see the market move toward bonds in spite of the S&P move yesterday. This is exactly what I would have expected in a normal environment. But I have come to expect that nothing expected will happen.

Builders are showing some signs of life finally....although we are still at 50 year lows, it is nice to see a pulse, right?

The move up has been a bit sharp and I dont love the way the chart looks. Although I now believe we could test the old highs, I would like to us build a foundation between 101.90 and 102.20 first.

Have a great day

2011-04-18T09:05:00.000-06:00

The market was stunned but not surprised by the move from S&P to downgrade the US outlook from stable to negative. This drove the dow down over 200 points and bonds followed along by following from recent highs down to clinging for support at 101.70. Interesting? Not sure I have seen this in my years as a life long economic student. On one hand, you could make a teeny arguement that this is good for bonds, as our AAA debt rating was not cut. On the other hand...one could fear next the debt rating gets cut. This would be a disaster!

Light news week. Mostly housing related and most of us are not looking for any great news in these reports.

Watch 101.70, if we can hold that and get over what happened this morning, we will once again test 102.00.

This could go either way, once again we float in uncharted waters.

Have a great week!

Mortgage Rates 4-13-2011

2011-04-13T09:15:00.000-06:00

Slightly lower than expected, but still pretty good retail prices, combined with JP Morgans pleasant earnings surprise are giving some lift to yesterdays battered DOW.

MBS are still flirting with a major support level and we need to see the ten year back below 3.50% to keep us out of trouble. Even with these low rates, Mortgage Apps are down another 6.7%. This needs to stop if we are to truly experience an economic recovery.

Watch the Beige Book release later today..it will help determine the direction of the market.

Have a great day!

2011-04-11T10:02:00.000-06:00

No scheduled news today but we do have speeches coming from three of our Fed presidents. The last thing we need today is talk of inflation.

Speaking of inflation we do get both PPI and CPI, as well as many other important economic releases this week. I am still somewhat bearish on bonds short term and I hope we can hold 101.20, if not, we could go down to test 101.00.

These rates are still incredibly low and this may well be the the best time ever, to buy a home!

Have a great week

Mortgage Rates 4-8-2011

2011-04-08T09:04:00.000-06:00

I don't even know what to say anymore. Nothing makes sense and nobody cares. We must increase focus on the charts and decrease focus on the news. The charts continue to stink and we keep slipping down each rung of our support ladder.

The next checkpoint is 101.00 and then we could be looking at the lows from February of 99ish. We need a quick pop and hold above 101.80 to reverse this pattern. Maybe it comes next week if we get great inflation numbers...maybe we we remain blind to even good inflation.

Stay cautious...yes it may not matter to your commission with the new regs in efffect, but it absolutely matters to your borrower (the more important of two of you).

Have a great weekend!

Mortgage Rates 4-5-2011

2011-04-05T09:15:00.000-06:00

ISM service index was down slightly. When I combine this knowledge with $108 oil, Japan disaster and a downgrade in Portugal it leads to believe we should test the high end of our current trading range.

What actually happens will largely depend on the FOMC minutes that will be released a bit later today. Talk of inflation or comments of economic improvement could send us in the other direction.

As always...do purchases it takes the edge off of rate concerns and sell what you have today whenever possible. Talk of lower rates in the past or the potential of lower rates is why your consumers sit on the fence.

Have a great day!

Mortgage Rates 4-04-2011

2011-04-04T09:15:00.000-06:00

Pretty quiet day, no scheduled news and very few headlines out the MENA region or Japan...I am surprised about that, because there is no doubt plenty to talk about.

Meanwhile...the technicals will drive our activity today. I think we close the gap that was created at the open and then we may go back up and test 101.90 and perhaps even 102. Watch the FOMC tomorrow for any Fed speak about inflation...we dont need that!

Have a great day!

Mortage Rates 4-1-2011

2011-04-01T10:51:00.000-06:00

Favorable unemployment numbers and hawkish fed speak has curbed our rally! In fact we were thrown out of the up channel yesterday and must struggle to stay range bound.

I suspect we close the gap this morning and find some support here. This assumes the Fed presidents all chill out and stop talking about inflation.

Glad to see more people finding jobs!

Have a great weekend and congrats on the Fed Court ruling to Stay the Comp rule! Hopefully it is the first of other positve moves for the Brokers

Mortgage Rates 3/28/2011

2011-03-28T09:27:00.002-06:00

Bad world news keeps coming, now add a double downgrade to Portugal and new conflicts in Syria. Investors dont care....that is until the drugs wear off. This morning I noticed that the spread between treasuries and Higher risk corporate bonds is narrower than usual. So, when someone does find a reason to pull out of stocks..they don't run to safety, they run to high yield bonds. Interesting and frightening if you ask me.

The good news is the economy is showing signs of growth.

We are still in a down channel and our "Head and Shoulders" failed and as I had cautioned, this put further pressure on rates. Lets hope for a close above 101-60 and closure of the gap...this could paint a new bottom for us.

Have a great week!

Mortgage Rates 3/25/2011

2011-03-25T08:55:00.002-06:00

GDP was up a little more than expected but consumer sentiment stole the headlines. Consumers are feeling worse than they were when we entered the recession and the expectation component of the release was even more troubling. I see GDP as looking in the rear view mirror and consumer sentiment as forward looking.

We must hold 101.80 for a number of reasons, mostly to not breach the current head and shoulders pattern created on the 4.5% chart yesterday.

Have a great weekend!

Mortage Rates 3/23/2011

2011-03-23T10:44:00.002-06:00

Headline exhaustion is causing the markets to appear bored and non-reactive to a lot of big things happening. This can lead to some wild and volitile trading once the market awakens from it's Zombie trance. I would expect as we move from walking dead, we will move toward a dose of fear and panic, causing the Dow to sell off and further rally in bonds.

The story will unfold as we get both GDP and Durable goods reports over the next two days.

"Stay Thirsty my Friends"

Have a great day!

Mortgage Rates 3/22/2011

2011-03-22T09:14:00.002-06:00

Nothing new but the old news is still ugly, frightening and somehow forgotten for the moment. I've been studying these markets for just under 30 years now and I cannot recall a time when we willingly shrugged off major disasters, as we appear to be doing right now.

The long-term effects of both Japan and Libya are to lengthy to ponder in this brief write up but I assure you, they are not good for the economy in the end. Yes, wars create jobs and government spending but then is ends and we have to pay the reeper.

I still see a longer move up but at the moment we need to work through this correction. Hopefully 101.80 holds and we get back into a more logical trading range.

Have a great day!

Mortgage Rates 3/21/2011

2011-03-21T08:59:00.002-06:00

Bonds are selling off and the Dow is up over 200 points, sort of the opposite of what one would expect on top of all the bombing we doing in Libya. A new war is usually bullish for bonds, but I suppose we have become callus. The bond market is also having a strong reaction to the Fed's announcement that it will sell $10 billion per month of bonds for the next 14 months.

The Dow is up on the hope that Japan is under control and an annoucement the ATT will purchase T-mobile.

I believe both the DOW rally and the bond sell off are too extreme and emotions should calm as the day goes on.

Have a great week!

Mortgage Rates 3-18-2011

2011-03-18T09:59:00.002-06:00

A cease fire in Libya (if you believe it) and some appearance of control of the nuclear damage in Japan has spark a DOW rally and stalled our bond rally.

Any surprises in the other direction will reverse the above and spark one hell of a bond party.

Otherwise look for range bound trading between 102.20 and 102.60 while we gather steam for the next leg up.

Have a great weekend!

Mortgage Rates 3-17-2011

2011-03-17T08:53:00.003-06:00

I would expect high to extreme volitility today. I would also expect that we could go down and test 102.18ish and we may even go back up and test 102.60. Where she ends, will have everything to do with Japan headlines and other global concerns.

Inflation still our friend. Jobless claims down to 21/2 year low and other important news due out this morning will add to my volitilility prediction. Save yourselves and your clients the drama and make the sale only once, meaning don't sell a rate prediction to get the deal!

Have a great day and don't forget to wear green today.

Mortgage Rates 3/16/2011

2011-03-16T09:13:00.001-06:00

Japan fears continue, Portugal double downgraded and housing starts at the second lowest number on record. Add to that high food and energy prices which thus far cannot be passed onto consumers and you have yourself some "trouble stew".

We continue to rise within our established channel and fundamentally there does not seem to be any reason to terminate this rise. As always, please remember..it is never a straight line up.

Have a great day!

Mortgage Rates 3/15/2011

2011-03-15T09:33:00.001-06:00

The earth shifts by 13 feet and we have a nuclear disaster as a result of one of the worst earthquakes in history. Some times a natural event can cause unquantifiable change for many years to come. I suspect this to be the case of last weeks earthquake.

Stocks were down around 250 and bond yields have fallen 10 bps, as the market is just beginning to understand what all of this could mean to world prices.

Look for the gap to try and close as people begin fearing they "overreacted". I still see this as part of the "Long, Strong but slow move up for bond prices" Remember...it is never straight up and you should expect plenty of profit taking along the way.

Have a great day!

Mortgage Update 3-14-2001

2011-03-14T10:32:00.001-06:00

My prayers go out to Japan and I am deeply sorry for the horrible losses they have endured. Life is fragile and we often spend too much time focusing on things that don't matter in the long run. This earth quake and the changes that will be driven through pain and loss do matter in long run.

We will continue to see some softening in oil prices and pressure on several world markets as this is all digested. Sadly, on top on this natural disaster, we have Libya and the Middle east causing their own disasters by choice.

All of this plays into some favorable bond prices....but as I've always said, I would trade peace and safety for higher rates and healthy economy.

We should stay in the current up channel at least until we test 102.40ish.

Have a great week.

Mortgage Rates 3-9-2011

2011-03-09T08:56:00.001-07:00

Wholesale inventories rose a bit, but less than last months revised numbers and about meeting expectations. So, nothing to talk about there. The real news SHOULD be Oil, Libya and the middle east but the financial markets seem blind to what is happening thus far today. This is just wierd to me!

The 10 year auction will be carefully watched later today, so stay alert.

Had it not been for bonds rolling, we would still be in the trading range I suggested of 101.60-102.00.

Have a great day!

Mortgage Rates 3-8-2011

2011-03-08T09:46:00.001-07:00

No scheduled news today but plenty of things going on in the World, for the market to focus on. We have Greece yields through the roof with a threat of default, Middle East problems spreading to Kuwait and oil at $104!

All of this should help keep bond prices up!

Watch the 3 year auction today..a great auction will remind everyone about the "Flight to Quality" play.

Have a great day!

Mortgage Rates March 3 2011

2011-03-03T08:52:00.002-07:00

Both jobless claims and the ISM services index have surprised the market with better than expected data. Add to that Libya peace talks and you get the perfect excuse for a bond sell off. As the day goes on and digest all of this, there is a CHANCE that we close the gap down. I would take that as a locking opportunity. As I have said for a few days now, the best you can hope for is sideways activity for the next few days.

Tomorrow is huge news day and it could cause tremendous volitility as the market tries to decode the various unemployment numbers. Be careful.

Have a great day!

Mortgage Rates March 2nd 2011

2011-03-02T09:01:00.001-07:00

I expect a crazy day today.

Challenger Job cuts was a big surprise, showing the largest amount of planned layoffs since March 10 and a 30% plus increase from last month. ADP jobs could offset that a little, as they are forecasting a 175k increase in new jobs. Does anyone trust that number after the last two months? I dont!

We also have mounting concerns in the Middle East and Libya with Iran now jumping into the mix...personally, I find all of this upheavel VERY concerning as it spreads. Anger is contagious and I pray it stops there! The DOW does not like any of this which could play well for bonds. As I have said before, I would trade World peace for higher rates!

Lastly...watch carefully what Bernanke has to say during day two of his testimony and watch for the Beige Book report later today...both could cause the market to whipsaw.

Have a great day!

Mortgage Rates March 1st 2011

2011-03-01T09:06:00.002-07:00

Middle East and Libya continue to be a focus of the market. Also, all eyes are on Bernanke right now. Some headwind was created by the ISM index, which does not concern me at all. It is an overrated indicator.

We did hit my target of 102 which could prove to be a temporary top. I would bet on some range bound trading from 101.50 to 102.00 until we build some steam for the next leg up...yes I am still bullish over the next couple of months!

Have a great day!

Mortgage Rates Feb 28th 2011

2011-02-28T09:21:00.001-07:00

Mixed news again today...I believe as the day goes on the bond market will decide the net effect of the news is somewhat bond friendly. Nice to see a small rise income, which resulted from the tax cuts...not surprised consumers were unwilling to part with any of it.

Trouble in Libya continues, as does fear of increased oil prices. I would expect the Dow to also change its point of view as the day goes on, I am surprised to see such a large increase, thus far in the morning.

I still see 102 in the horizon...perhaps we flatten out and maybe even correct a bit from there. Still see a longer and bigger move up coming our way, after that!

Have a a great week!

Mortgage Rates Feb 25 2011

2011-02-25T09:06:00.000-07:00

A slight downward revision to the GDP number, is exactly what the economy does not need right now. The number is only horrible if we need jobs...which I think we do.

Still remaining nicely in the up channel as we have for the past 15 days. I love that we stayed over 101.50, in light of an average auction and some decent news yesterday. We still appear to be positioned to run at 102

I believe this is still the beginning of long and positive move up. having said that...it is NEVER a straight line up and you should always expect the unexpected.

Have a great day!

Mortgage Rates Feb. 24th 2011

2011-02-24T09:06:00.001-07:00

Good Bonds....Bad reasons! The issues in Libya are not letting up and it is sad to see so many people injured and killed. If I were their leader, I would shoot myself before letting even one persons blood shed over my rule.

Durable orders ex-transportation was lower than expected and should create some lift today. Jobless claims were better but not good enough to excite anyone. I like the little GAP up opening...it snuck us above what could have been a bigger point of resistance. I would expect to close the gap and test that level once more. If we hold...we should continue to climb to 101.80 in the near term. This is of course dependant on a good 7 year auction today and a GDP number that does not surprise to the upside.

Have a great day!

Mortgage Rates Feb 24th 2011

2011-02-24T09:00:00.000-07:00

Sorry no video today.

Good Bonds....Bad reasons! The issues in Libya are not letting up and it is sad to see so many people injured and killed. If I were their leader, I would shoot myself before letting even one persons blood shed over my rule.

Durable orders ex-transportation was lower than expected and should create some lift today. Jobless claims were better but not good enough to excite anyone. I like the little GAP up opening...it snuck us above what could have been a bigger point of resistance. I would expect to close the gap and test that level once more. If we hold...we should continue to climb to 101.80 in the near term. This is of course dependant on a good 7 year auction today and a GDP number that does not surprise to the upside.

Have a great day!

Mortgage Rates Feb. 22 2011

2011-02-22T09:06:00.003-07:00

Political unrest is mounting, as is concerns over oil prices. While high oil costs is inflationary, it also creates a huge drag on the economy, with people less likely to fly and drive on those family vacations.

I would completely discount the rise in consumer confidence, as it is a lie based upon a lie. Consumers feel good when the equity markets rally....enough said, if you've been listening to my point of view for a while.

Home prices still falling....which is helping bond prices and depressing us trying to do purchase business. I continue to believe this is the greatest home buying opportunity in my life time. Make sure your buyers know that in many markets it is cheaper to own than to rent!!!

I remain on the bullish side for bond prices. We may test 101 and close the gap, but I am still seeing 101.50 in the near term.

Have a great day

Mortgage Rates Feb. 20th 2011

2011-02-18T09:27:00.001-07:00

No scheduled news today. Just some focus on the G-20 talks and the high PPI number posted by Germany. We need the Global forces to work this instability out and not point fingers! The result could be a currency war which NOBODY wins.

We broke out (in a bad way) from the upward channel with a Gap down opening. I dont like the gap up yesterday followed by an equal but opposite gap down today. Combine this with our candlestick and it looks like a reversal. Lets hope we close the gap get back into the channel. If we dont hold here, I would look for a test of 100.40.

Have a great weekend!

Mortgage Rates Feb. 16th 2011

2011-02-16T09:09:00.002-07:00

Another mixed bag of news today. The headline numbers have spooked the market and inspired the whacky equity markets. My hope is that as the day goes on, traders will focus on what is behind the numbers and our rally does not have to stall out just yet. Thus far....I must admit, it looks shakey.

Housing and manufacturing were both bad....so, in the end, we would be reacting to the wholesale inflation number which thus far has not been an indicator of consumer inflation. While I admit rising commodity prices is concerning and I once again hate filling up the family SUV....these increases actually steal wallet share and provide less buying power for families. So...in the end..it drags down the economy. Interesting situation.

Ok...lets all root for a super low CPI number tomorrow!

Have a great day!

Mortgage Rates Feb. 14th 2011

2011-02-14T12:03:00.002-07:00

Things are faily quiet and other than the budget talks, there is not much to talk about.

From a technical standpoint...I like the charts and they continue to support my "found bottom" theory of last week. We want to carefully watch the news scheduled to be released this week...particularly CPI!

Thanks to everyone for all the kind words and prayors directed toward my Mom. She seems to be doing better and may be released from the hospital in Israel as soon as tomorrow.

Have a great week and a happy Valentines Day!

Mortgage Rates Feb 10 2011

2011-02-10T09:07:00.002-07:00

Jobless claims drop a surprising amount...thus causing a headwind for the nice ride I was planning for us. Hopefully, the Dow being off and what could be a good 30 year auction will help us power through the wind. When we do embark upon our journey toward lower rates...it should be a long lasting rally. I sure hope yesterday was the beginning...the charts align well with this believe.

Have a great day!

Mortgage Rates Feb. 9th 2011

2011-02-09T09:00:00.001-07:00

Yesterdays 3 year auction sparked a major sell off for bonds across all majorities. Today, all eyes are on the 10 year auction. If it goes well it COULD begin to create a bottom at these levels. We are currently resting on some major support levels and this would be a likely place to begin a reversal. I am hoping the newly created high 10 year yields will bring a large amount of bidders to our sale today. It all rests on this...at the moment.

Mortgage Rates 1/20/2011

2011-01-20T09:20:00.000-07:00

What a wierd mash up of news...everything from the blues to rock and roll is playing across the newswire. Housing better, jobs better but manufacturing falters. On top of this we have 11.25% rate in Brazil with big inflation and a the formation of a big bubble in China! When things get this confusing, it is best to focus on the charts and they don't look good. Look for a test of 98.50 unless the DOW continues selling off.

Mortgage Rate Jan. 13 2011

2011-01-13T09:53:00.001-07:00

PPI, trade deficit and yesterdays beige book are swirling around together and creating more questions than answers. My personal take is that PPI (the core number) is just fine and supports these levels. No surprises in the beige book report and the trade deficit, net-net, sorta means nothing.

This keeps us range bound awaiting tomorrows CPI, Retail Sales and Michigan Sentiment. These things will move the market. Yesterday we had a nice auction, hopefully todays 30 auction will go off as well as the 10 year did.

I am bothered by our failed attempts to break 99.75 and this continues to be a bearish sign. We will most likely take another run at it and we'd better break through.

Have a great day!

Mortgage Rates Nov. 30th 2010

2010-11-30T09:57:00.001-07:00

A crash in the stock market and potential rally in bonds was avoided (perhaps temporarily) by a surprise rise in consumer confidence.

Overall, I read the sum total of todays events to be bullish for bonds..we will see as the day goes on if my belief plays out.

2010-11-08T09:11:00.000-07:00

No scheduled news today. Although Japan is discussing their own version of QE1, which should be interesting to watch. The DOW is off which could provide some lift for bonds, otherwise, it appears there is more downside risk (short term) than upside potential.

Mortgage Rates Oct. 18th 2010

2010-10-18T09:51:00.003-06:00

The market is continuing in a sideways trading range which often whipsaws traders trying to catch a trend. This whipsaw effect is precisely what keeps us sideways...you may have to think about that for a moment. :-)

Manufacturing is weak and new home traffic is a little better, but still depressing. The market seems to be waiting for direction and I am not sure where it will come from at this point. We may run down and test 100.60 one more time if we do not break out of the 100.80 trendline. If we do break out, we could test the highs again. This is a tough one to call.

Mortgage Rates Oct. 12th 2010

2010-10-12T08:57:00.002-06:00

No news this morning, just some talk about China tightening bank regs and lots of anticipation over the FOMC notes that will be released later today. This correction was both healthy and called for. MBS also rolled over at a funny time, which has caused some of this drop on the charts. Hopefully the FED will provide some guideance as to what we can expect with regards to QE2.

Mortgage Rates October 4th 2010

2010-10-04T08:55:00.002-06:00

Mixed news this morning...more good than bad may pressure bonds as the traders digest. I look for a small push up but then a drift down toward the bottom of the range.

Mortgage Rates Sept. 28th 2010

2010-09-28T09:25:00.000-06:00

Anyway...consumer confidence and news the Ireland may be downgraded are driving yet another rally. Market is staying within the trading range and the 5 yr auction later today will help decide if we break out. We may drift down later this afternoon as many traders will not want to be long ahead of GDP tomorrow.

Mortgage Rates Sept. 27th 2010

2010-09-27T09:16:00.001-06:00

No news today but huge news coming at us every other day this week. I expect the magnitude of the news coming at us, when combined with the Fed ready to strike again, could lead to some crazy swings. Highs to 103.20 and perhaps lows to 102.20....maybe more in both directions.

Mortgage Rates Sept.24th 2010

2010-09-24T09:02:00.001-06:00

Durable goods (ex-transportation) is much stronger than expected and has sparked a sell off in bonds and DOW rally. I am more concerned with the terrible New home sales numbers AND the fact that prices have now fallen to the worst levels since December of 03.

In any event 102.60 was expected and represents the bottom of the range. If we hold, we will drift back toward the top over the next couple of sessions (barring any surprising reports)

Mortgage Rates Sept.22nd 2010

2010-09-22T09:10:00.001-06:00

Well...we got a huge boost from the FOMC announcement. The fed is now poised to strike not only if things get worse BUT, they will strike with another round of Quanatative easing if things dont get BETTER. I think we can expect that! Now we just need some volume and less volitivity in the 3.5% coupons and we will be off to the races!

Mortgage Rates Sept. 16th 2010

2010-09-16T10:07:00.001-06:00

Yesterdays bullish looking chart pattern failed to break out to the upside and in fact came down and tested the downside. Currently we run the threat of blowing through to the downside, driven in my opinion by an OVER-REACTION to the SMALL improvement in jobless claims. Too many people still out of work and CORE PPI is tame, still the recipe for low rates. Hang in there!

Mortgage Rates Sept. 15th 2010

2010-09-15T09:25:00.002-06:00

We have a bullish tone to the market and seem quite willing to shrug off good economic news. Today we are even seeming some volume. Add to that the Fed doing some buying of mid-term maturities and you have the receipe for better prices. Not sure how much will happen in light of inflation and make no mistake, CPI will matter!

Mortgage Rates Sept. 14th 2010

2010-09-14T09:00:00.002-06:00

Be careful...at some point today the market may wake up and realize the a .06% increase in ex-transportation retail sales is big AND that business inventories are at their highest levels since 2008! Personally, I think that offsets the bit of bad news from the Euro zone this morning. Technically, we also look pushed.

Mortgage Rates Sept.10th 2010

2010-09-10T09:09:00.002-06:00

Well...we got creamed! The things I feared and discussed materialized and we are testing the bottom of the support level. If things get emotional and traders cave going into the weekend, we could see some panic selling and test 102.00. Hopefully we hold 102.30! Have a great weekend!

Mortgage Rates Sept. 9th 2010

2010-09-08T11:05:00.001-06:00

Sorry no video today. I am having computer problems. I hope to have it fixed by the end of the week.

Mortgage Rates September 1st 2010

2010-09-01T11:17:00.001-06:00

Hopefully you locked some loans yesterday...the run up was a bonus based on pretty nothing. Today we have a mixed bag of news...causing the DOW to overreact on the upside which is causing bonds to overreact on the downside. The big news on Friday (unemployment) will set the tone for the first half of September. As I said yesterday, be careful up here.

Mortgage Rates August 31st 2010

2010-08-31T09:21:00.002-06:00

Can you believe these prices this morning? I can't! Although todays mixed bag of economic news point more toward favorable bond prices...this is a bit too much for me to swallow. Are we expanding our trading range up to 103.50 on a 4% bond? Wow! I won't feel comfortable until after I see the FOMC notes and of course the real story will not unravel until we get unemployment on Friday.

Mortgage Rates August 30th 2010

2010-08-30T09:48:00.002-06:00

Consumer spending news should be sending bonds down, but it is oposite day, just as Friday was. We may now have the recent round of profit taking behind us, let's see if we hold the trend line and the 102.90 level.

Huge news week, I expect a great deal of volitility!

Mortgage Rates August 26th 2010

2010-08-26T11:07:00.002-06:00

Yesterday was a wild day, which closed the gap and helped many traders take profit. The good news is that we are holding the bottom of what appears to be a new trading range and even the improved jobless claims report was not enough to blow through our newly forming support level. Watch the 7 year auction, the results could spark unreasonable activity ahead of tomorrows big GDP number.

Mortgage Rates August 25th 2010

2010-08-25T09:44:00.002-06:00

Wow...horrible durable goods (ex-transportation) and new record low home sales have sparked yet anothter GAP up opening for MBS. Technically, this looks like it could be the beginning of new trading range with 102.90ish being the bottom. We may see some profit taking to close the gap, depending out how the 5 year auction goes off.

We may also see profit taking ahead of Fridays GDP number. Big number to anticipate while being long bonds.

Mortgage Rates August 24th 2010

2010-08-24T09:41:00.003-06:00

Mortgage Rates August 18th 2010

2010-08-18T10:34:00.002-06:00

No real news today. Germany's auction was favorable and yesterday we did manage to hold the bottom of the range. I think we will test it again today and I am not too sure she will hold. Very tough to call because the Fed has begun buying treasuries which will mess with the natural pattern of the charts.

2010-08-17T09:50:00.001-06:00

Mortgage Rates August 16th 2010

2010-08-16T08:59:00.004-06:00

The fundamentals help drive a Gap up opening. You know about gaps...right? I would look for the gap to close and then the market can get about its business of reacting to things like slowing growth in Japan, Plummeting builder confidence and slowing manufacturing in the NY Regoin.

Mortgage Rates August 11th 2010

2010-08-11T09:29:00.005-06:00

Yesterday after the close of trading (8/10/2010), MBS had a monthly coupon rollover.

The effect was -42.51 basis points. When the rollover happens, this months coupon is closed out and all new loans are placed into the next months coupon. This does not effect rate sheets or pricing. However, any chart patterns that arise from the rollover must be taken with a grain of salt.

Here is a link to todays video
href="http://ratewatch.com/ratewatchnow.html">

Fed decides to buy treasuries, trade gap widens and economic uncertainty grows.

ratewatch.com/ratewatchnow.html

The dow is off 100 points...clearly concerned about the Feds comments this afternoon. Also we are seeing a reaction to the decline in productivity. Meaning, business did less with MORE people, meaning, they may be overstaffed. We also have 34 billion dollar 3 year auction to contend with today.

Should be interesting but I dont see anything to threaten (other than a correction) MBS prices.

Have a great day!

Mortgage Rates August 10th 2010

2010-08-10T11:39:00.002-06:00

Mortgage Rates August 5th 2010

2010-08-05T10:07:00.001-06:00

Mortgage Rates August 3rd 2010

2010-08-03T09:29:00.002-06:00

Mortgage Rates August 2nd 2010

2010-08-02T10:17:00.001-06:00

Sorry no video today. I can't get it to work.

Mortgage Rates July 30th 2010

2010-07-30T11:30:00.002-06:00

Mortgage Rates July 29th 2010

2010-07-29T10:07:00.002-06:00

Mortgage Rates July 28th 2010

2010-07-28T09:33:00.002-06:00

Mortgage Rates July 26th 2010

2010-07-26T08:49:00.002-06:00

July 21st 2010

2010-07-21T09:11:00.001-06:00

Mortgage Rates July 19th 2010

2010-07-19T09:58:00.001-06:00

Mortgage Rates July 16th 2010

2010-07-16T09:24:00.002-06:00

July 15th 2010

2010-07-15T09:22:00.001-06:00

July 13th 2010

2010-07-13T09:50:00.002-06:00

Mortgage Rates July 8th 2010

2010-07-08T08:22:00.001-06:00

Mortgage Rates July 6th 2010

2010-07-06T10:03:00.001-06:00

Mortgage Rates July 6th 2010

2010-07-06T09:54:00.002-06:00

2010-07-01T10:06:00.001-06:00

No video today sorry.

Mortgage Rates June 28th 2010

2010-06-28T09:12:00.001-06:00

Mortgage Rates June 24nd 2010

2010-06-24T10:10:00.001-06:00

Mortgage Rates June 22nd 2010

2010-06-22T10:45:00.002-06:00

Mortgage Rates June 17th 2010

2010-06-17T09:50:00.001-06:00

Mortgage Rates June 16th 2010

2010-06-16T09:52:00.002-06:00

Mortgage Rates June 15th 2010

2010-06-15T09:09:00.002-06:00

Mortgage Rates June 14th 2010

2010-06-14T10:03:00.001-06:00

Mortgage Rates June 11th 2010

2010-06-11T10:00:00.002-06:00

Mortgage Rates June 8th 2010

2010-06-08T09:52:00.001-06:00

Mortgage Rates June 2nd 2010

2010-06-02T09:34:00.002-06:00

Mortgage Rates May 27th 2010

2010-05-27T10:15:00.001-06:00

Mortgage Rates May 26th 2010

2010-05-26T09:33:00.001-06:00

Mortgage Rates May 20th 2010

2010-05-20T10:19:00.001-06:00